Ten years after the UK entered into a hasty public vote that divided the country and caused chaos, a caution comes from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Authorities and voters drifted into Brexit and the similar may happen with a national vote on a united Ireland, initiating disturbances for which nobody is equipped.
That is the message from two prominent journalists from each side of the Irish border who have teamed up to scrutinise the pros and cons of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to establish a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Institutions Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are woefully unready for a possibly contentious and transformative referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that events can emerge unexpectedly and can gain traction swiftly," the commentator stated. "I would suggest that the political architecture of our archipelago remains extremely volatile."
Book Publication Seeks to Stir Debate
The team have studied the governmental, economic and cultural reasons for any constitutional change in a book, The Case For and Against Unification, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to stir debate on the matter with a roadshow of speaking events that will bring them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What concerns everyone, or must worry all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated the analyst.
"We should prevent a referendum on a binary, unclear proposal whose results have not been spelled out because then you end up with an extraordinarily split population where those defeated are not reconciled to defeat and the victorious side are uncertain quite what it is that they have gained."
Governmental Mandate
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland official should call a public vote on Irish unity if it seems probable that a majority would support.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists argue such a time is looming, and a group called pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but both governments and unionists downplay the likelihood, leaving it unclear whether or when there will be a national vote.
Absence of Informed Dialogue
Ideological statements for and against unification has hidden the lack of substantive discussion, stated the journalist.
"People tend to be for or against the notion but the detailed consideration which may surpass that to make it possible hasn't for the most part happened. A great deal has taken place in academia but very few government figures or advocates seek to involve themselves even with the basics. As an example, what sort of state might be preferred? Unitary? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the book, neither author endorses unification or the current situation. Both writes two articles that strive for neutrality in presenting the case for a unified Ireland and the rationale opposing it, gathering economic and social data, past examples and constitutional models.
Debates encompass flags and symbols, levies, medical care, elderly benefits, sovereign debt obligations and the risk of unionist unrest. The aim is to inform and provoke dialogue.
"Considerable attention exists in the topic but there has not yet occurred a dialogue," commented O’Toole. "Dialogue suggests an recognition of the concept that there may exist reasonable perspectives on both sides."
Parallel Votes
A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens say they prefer unification but reject paying higher taxes or implementing a different emblem to reflect unionists' British identity.
"Authorities in Dublin does need to determine what the offer from pro-unification movements is beyond just declaring: 'We seek a united Ireland and we love you'," said O’Toole.
Likelihood of Referendum
McBride believes a referendum in his era is possible and that it could happen unexpectedly. "It is possible just a mad or a poor or a incompetent secretary of state who says: 'Let's just do this and get it out of the way.'"
Both nationalists and unionists have plausible, legitimate points, he said. "Somebody will win on this issue and the other side will in the end lose but each side has possesses important lessons to acquire from the alternative positions."
Appeal for Broader Dialogue
Westminster must participate in the discussion, stated the analyst. "This concerns the United Kingdom. It is a British question equally as it is an Irish matter."
